The Process

This Covid-19 simulator uses SIR modelling (read more), a compartmental model from which many other models are derived. The S stands for the number of individuals who are susceptible to the illness, the I stands for the number of individuals who are infectious, and the R stands for the number of individuals who have been removed. Being removed means that individual has already contracted the illness and cannot contract it again (basically, it's a nice way to say either recovered or died.)

I used this model, along with an OOP (Object-Oriented Programming) approach to develop this simulation.

After creating the basic simulation, in which individuals move around randomly, I decided to implement simulations in which certain specific changes were integrated to determine how helpful preventative measures are.

I began by creating a simulation in which everybody is wearing masks - essentially, I lowered the likelihood of contracting the illness.

I then created a simulation in which individuals had incentive to visit some central location, be it a mall, a supermarket, or something of the sort.

Next, I created a simulation in which individuals actively tried to stay away from one another (social distancing.)

Finally, I tried to lower the contraction rate to a minimum by creating a simulation in which individuals wore masks as well as social distances.

The results are all posted below.

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The Results

At the end of each simulation, the program displays the rate of contraction and the number of infected/safe individuals. This is useful because it allowed me empirically compare each simulation to see which one was the safest:

A: No preventative measures: 77.72% contraction rate

B: Wearing a mask: 66.42% contraction rate

C: Visiting a central location: 88.29% contraction rate

D: Social distancing: 70.12% contraction rate

E: Wearing a mask and social distancing: 36.85% contraction rate

These numbers are certainly not final; there is an element of chance in these simulations, and the results can vary. However, it's very unlikely that the basic simulation will ever reach a contraction rate as low as simulation E did.

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In short, the program's results urge you to wear masks and social distance!